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May 2, 2024 11:06 AM UTC
In flagging no need to be dominated by Fed policy, we think that the BoE is not only moving towards rate cuts but the MPC majority may be overtly advertising such a likelihood. But we do not see any move at the looming May 9 verdict, with Bank Rate again likely to remain at 5.25%. But the accompan
May 2, 2024 10:50 AM UTC
Politburo statement in late April suggests extra support for residential property. However, we see this as being incremental rather than any game changers and we still see residential investment remaining a negative drag on 2024 GDP growth.
May 1, 2024 7:58 PM UTC
The May 1 FOMC statement, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, while noting recent inflation disappointment, did not deliver a strong pivot in tone. The Fed is still waiting for data to allow easing to take place, but still expects inflation to slow, and looks ready to respond once data
May 1, 2024 6:45 PM UTC
Bottom line: South Africa policy makers remain concerned about government debt trajectory, large domestic and international financing needs and elevated country risk premium before fast-approaching elections on May 29. We think South Africa’s general government fiscal balance and debt trajectory w
May 1, 2024 2:30 PM UTC
March’s JOLTS report has seen a sharp decline in job openings, to 8488k from 8813k (the latter a modest upward revision from 8756k). This with a slightly slower ISM manufacturing index if 49.2 from 50.3, hints at slowing activity in early Q2, though ISM prices paid at 60.9 from 55.8 are worryingly
May 1, 2024 12:59 PM UTC
We expect March’s trade deficit to see a marginal increase to $69.2bn from $68.9bn, with a 2.0% decline in exports and a 1.5% decline in imports. This would be the fourth straight increase in the deficit to its highest level since April 2023.
May 1, 2024 12:39 PM UTC
ADP’s April estimate for private sector employment growth of 192k is on the high side of expectations though not quite as strong as the revised March gain of 208k (revised from 184k). ADP trend has picked up in the last three months but this may be catch up with strength in non-farm payrolls.
May 1, 2024 12:34 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as the greenback strengthens on fear of Fed tilting hawkish after strong than expected U.S. wage data and haven bids from falling equity. SGD saw the largest losses of 0.42%, followed by KRW 0.35%, CNY 0.17%, PHP and CNH 0.15%, MYR 0.1
April 30, 2024 5:54 PM UTC
INEGI released Mexico's Preliminary GDP for Q1 2024, showing 0.2% growth, slightly above expectations. Annual GDP slowed to 2.0% from 2.8% in Q4 2023. The economy is losing momentum due to tight monetary policy and weakened U.S. demand. Agriculture contracted by 1.1%, Industry by 0.4%, while Service