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May 02, 2024
May 01, 2024
South Africa’s Fiscal Outlook Under Spotlights as the Elections Are Approaching
May 1, 2024 6:45 PM UTC
Bottom line: South Africa policy makers remain concerned about government debt trajectory, large domestic and international financing needs and elevated country risk premium before fast-approaching elections on May 29. We think South Africa’s general government fiscal balance and debt trajectory w
U.S. March JOLTS report weaker, as is April ISM Manufacturing, but Prices Paid rise
May 1, 2024 2:30 PM UTC
March’s JOLTS report has seen a sharp decline in job openings, to 8488k from 8813k (the latter a modest upward revision from 8756k). This with a slightly slower ISM manufacturing index if 49.2 from 50.3, hints at slowing activity in early Q2, though ISM prices paid at 60.9 from 55.8 are worryingly
Preview: Due May 2 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Deficit to increase on weaker goods exports
May 1, 2024 12:59 PM UTC
We expect March’s trade deficit to see a marginal increase to $69.2bn from $68.9bn, with a 2.0% decline in exports and a 1.5% decline in imports. This would be the fourth straight increase in the deficit to its highest level since April 2023.
U.S. April ADP Employment - Trend looking stronger, payroll implications unclear
May 1, 2024 12:39 PM UTC
ADP’s April estimate for private sector employment growth of 192k is on the high side of expectations though not quite as strong as the revised March gain of 208k (revised from 184k). ADP trend has picked up in the last three months but this may be catch up with strength in non-farm payrolls.
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
May 1, 2024 12:34 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as the greenback strengthens on fear of Fed tilting hawkish after strong than expected U.S. wage data and haven bids from falling equity. SGD saw the largest losses of 0.42%, followed by KRW 0.35%, CNY 0.17%, PHP and CNH 0.15%, MYR 0.1
April 30, 2024
Mexico GDP Review: 0.2% Growth but Still Subpar
April 30, 2024 5:54 PM UTC
INEGI released Mexico's Preliminary GDP for Q1 2024, showing 0.2% growth, slightly above expectations. Annual GDP slowed to 2.0% from 2.8% in Q4 2023. The economy is losing momentum due to tight monetary policy and weakened U.S. demand. Agriculture contracted by 1.1%, Industry by 0.4%, while Service
U.S. April Consumer Confidence - Labor markets seen as less strong
April 30, 2024 2:23 PM UTC
April consumer confidence with a fall to 97.0 from 103.1 is weaker than expected and the lowest since July 2022. The easiest explanation for this is rising bond yields and fading expectations for rate cuts, though there are hints that the labor market is losing momentum too.