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May 1, 2024 7:58 PM UTC
The May 1 FOMC statement, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, while noting recent inflation disappointment, did not deliver a strong pivot in tone. The Fed is still waiting for data to allow easing to take place, but still expects inflation to slow, and looks ready to respond once data
May 1, 2024 6:45 PM UTC
Bottom line: South Africa policy makers remain concerned about government debt trajectory, large domestic and international financing needs and elevated country risk premium before fast-approaching elections on May 29. We think South Africa’s general government fiscal balance and debt trajectory w
May 1, 2024 6:27 PM UTC
The FOMC has left rates at 5.25%-5.50% as expected and added to its statement that in recent months there has been a lack of further progress towards the 2% inflation objective. Otherwise the changes to the statement were fairly minor other than announcing a slowing in the pace of balance sheet redu
May 1, 2024 8:09 AM UTC
It seems to be a question of when, not if as far as policy easing is concerned. Even at it previous policy assessment in February it was clear(er) that the Riksbank accepted that it could and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms. But its last decision
April 30, 2024 5:54 PM UTC
INEGI released Mexico's Preliminary GDP for Q1 2024, showing 0.2% growth, slightly above expectations. Annual GDP slowed to 2.0% from 2.8% in Q4 2023. The economy is losing momentum due to tight monetary policy and weakened U.S. demand. Agriculture contracted by 1.1%, Industry by 0.4%, while Service
April 30, 2024 5:15 PM UTC
We expect April CPI to rise by 0.4% overall for a third straight month but with the ex food and energy pace slowing to 0.3% after three straight months at 0.4%. We expect the strong start to the year to fade as the year progresses, though inflationary pressures will still look quite significant in A
April 30, 2024 2:19 PM UTC
The economy may have been in only mild recession in H2 last year, but the ‘recovery’ now evident is hardly much better with GDP growth only modestly positive. Admittedly, coming in as largely expected, and despite industrial action, GDP rose by 0.1% m/m in February accentuating the upgraded 0.
April 30, 2024 9:29 AM UTC
According to revised official national accounts data, the EZ economy was in recession in H2 last year, albeit modestly so and against a backdrop of marked, if not increasing, national growth divergences. This geographical variation continued into Q1 (Figure 1) where the flash GDP reading exceeded ex
April 29, 2024 2:02 PM UTC
The UK has faced a series of cost-of-living shocks in the last few years. Some such as the surge in food prices may even be reversing, while it now looks likely the BoE hiking cycle may also start to reverse, although rising market rates may mean little further fall in effective mortgage rates in
April 29, 2024 1:00 PM UTC
We feel that a devaluation of the Yuan is unlikely in 2024, both to avoid potentially politically destabilizing capital outflows but also to avoid upsetting the next U.S. president. Policy is geared more towards controlled depreciation to help competiveness but reduce other risks. The Yuan has a
April 26, 2024 1:21 PM UTC
Despite the BCB's initiation of the cutting cycle, credit is anticipated to decelerate due to monetary policy lags. Enterprises face the most significant impact, with nominal growth dropping to 4.1% in February from 12.1% a year prior. While household credit growth slows to 10.4% annually from 17%,
April 26, 2024 1:12 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As widely expected, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on April 26 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% for the third meeting in a row. CBR made critical changes in its key rate and inflation forecasts as it lifted its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.3-4.8% from 4-4
April 25, 2024 7:04 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The FOMC meets on May 1 and rates look sure to remain at the current 5.25%-5.50% target range. The statement is likely to see some adjustments to reflect recent disappointment on inflation while repeating that more confidence on inflation moving towards target is needed before easing. I
April 25, 2024 3:25 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on April 25 despite galloping inflation, and pressure on FX lately. According to the CBRT statement, monetary policy stance will be tightened in case a significant and persist